UNC vs. LSU (Atlanta, GA)

LJ: The weekend is finally here. In July, it couldn't come fast enough. A top rated defense, a more experienced offense, and numerous NFL prospects lead many (including myself) to believe this could be the most exciting football season since Mack Brown's last appearance in Chapel Hill around 1997.

Then, Marvin Austin's decision to show the world he's an idiot started a rapid decline in football season enthusiasm. Seriously, was Honest Abe any more correct when he said, "Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt." This moron's twitter account isn't his only problem, so Mr. Austin will be spending this weekend in Chapel Hill indefinitely suspended from the team.

I guess stupidity like misery loves company because Greg Little, he of the first down erasing unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, decided to follow MA off the cliff. The offense will miss Little's athleticism but his attitude and "leadership" might define the term "addition by subtraction."

Then, after the NCAA/UNC internal investigation was sorting out "agentgate", they uncovered an academic scandal involving the majority of the starting defense. A scandal so deeply intertwined that one of the major suspects actually worked directly for the coach. Awesome! Nice knowing you Kendrick Burney and Charles Brown.

Now it's rumored up to 16 players are questionable for Saturday's game, so there's a big turd in the middle of your tailgate. With all the legitimate academic support staff, required study halls, and resources at these players' fingertips, I have no sympathy for the guilty parties. What is their excuse? They had to practice Tweeting? What were they doing?

So how do we predict this game without knowing who is playing? Simple. LSU's preparation was solely on the Tar Heels. The Tar Heels' preparation is fragmented between agentgate, alleged cheating scandals, and an ever-evolving depth chart. Advantage LSU. LSU will win and possibly win big. Where do you think MA and company will watch the game?

I Didn't Know Wal-Mart Offered Face Tats

LJ: UNC has a reputation for having many fans that have no affiliation with the school. Generally, my reaction is to welcome them, accept their fervor (even if sometimes unguided), and tink an aluminum cheers to the respective event.

However, for those who prefer to brand their loyalty in ink on their face, I might suggest staying away from endeavors where it is used to identify you to the police.

Donald Black's Arrest in the "Gas House"

So Donald, in the future should you choose to deal drugs, attempt a robbery, or a combination of the two, please wear a mask and attempt a "Wolfpack Clap" to at least confuse them...

Brett Farve Still Sucks

LJ: There is little surprise surrounding Brett Farve's most recent announcement. It's time again for him to stomp in the corner and hold his breath until ESPN acknowledges him. Yawn. Let him pass out, let the season begin, and let's forget he ever existed. Wouldn't that be great. A sure-fire hall of famer ruins his admission by being a brat (or do I mean Brett)? If only...

Because Farve is not worth this much time again...

We're Coming Back

Lawrence Jordan: Nope. Last year was not a banner year for the schools comprising the Old North State's educational system. Aside from the University of New Jersey at Durham - who was handed a basketball trophy by the NCAA seeding committee - all other schools performed at an underwhelming level at best reaching mediocrity.

Prior to the 2009 football season, expectations were high and the mood at The ONH was very positive. Until the season played out.

No North Carolina ACC school posted a winning in-conference record, with UNC topping the charts with a less than inspirational 4-4 record. UNC did finish with 8 wins and went bowling...in Charlotte...and lost...again. The fireworks show expected at the beginning of the year ended up being the neighborhood kids playing with snap pops. Hooray.

Prior to the 2009-2010 basketball season, expectations were high and the mood at The ONH was positive. The national community of basketball fans, The ONH included, expected UNC and Duke to battle it out for first place in the conference, WFU to scare people with their athleticism, and NCSU to bide their time until 2010-2011.

Parts of this prediction was correct. Duke ended up on top and NCSU rounded out the bottom conference tier. But...UNC collapsed during Roy Williams' worst coaching job of his career that resulted in a big blemish on his record. WFU wrestled another mediocre season out of future NBA talent that resulted in Gaudio posting his resume on CoachingLadders.com. All that is evil marched to an ACC Title and National Title. Great. After the season I felt like I did when I watched the movie Seven for the first time. The season grew increasingly grotesque and at the end, the worst case scenario was delivered in a box.

Prior to the 2010 baseball season...wait. We never acknowledged the baseball season. UNC was coming off another College World Series trip. The ACC was projected to be one of the strongest baseball conferences in the Nation. BUT the ONH was so disillusioned that the posts dried up in February. Our bad. To recap, the ACC performed admirably producing 6 top 25 teams including the overall #1 team, UVA. But then the ACC sent only one team to Omaha...and they lost to their in-state SEC rival. Crap.

2009-2010 was The ONH's rookie year. We suffered some bumps and bruises. We learned some humbling lessons. We now resent each other a little more. Overall, the state of North Carolina was pretty much out-performed and out-classed. It was a weird year, hell South Carolina won a national title at something, so we'll shake this one off and prepare for 2010-2011. Sophomore slump? We think not.

Who Gives a Crap Bowl Vol. I

Philip Thompson: Honest question, is either fan base excited for the showdown in Chapel Hill pitting UNC vs NC State. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to win this game, but motivation is hard to come by. On one hand you have the worst Tarheel team in nearly 10 years. On the other hand, you have a Wolfpack program that seems to be stuck in mediocrity or lower for the past 25 years. The Tarheels have won one of their last seven games, but that win did come against the Wolfpack.

In my opinion, the Pack’s only real shot is if UNC is still feeling the effects of an ‘all or nothing’ crushing home loss to Duke less than 72 hours earlier. Also, having Ed Davis out of the game should help a State team that is really in a free-fall currently.

Prediction:
UNC 69
NC State 58

Why Beating NC State Never Gets Old

Lawrence Jordan: Some Tar Heels love to claim the Wolfpack are not rivals just to irritate the irrational bunch down I-40. I am not one of those Tar Heels. NC State is a rival. Beating the Wolfpack certainly means something to me, even if it's just avoiding their mooing after one of their few and far between victories.

It means bragging rights wherever I roam within North Carolina (people outside of North Carolina know little about the Pack). It means knowing the success and basketball tradition that is synonymous with being a Tar Heel is still out of reach in Raleigh.

You see, NC State wants desperately to be relevant, and this need for relevancy drives their irrationality. Sure the Wolfpack can talk about Everett Case and their Southern Conference history. They can talk about David Thompson and 1974. They can talk about a broken-play air-ball that turned into a National Championship in 1983. But what do they have to talk about in the 27 years since 1983?

By the Numbers:

• The overall series record: UNC 141-75
• Series Record in Deam Dome: 18-5
• NCAA Basketball Championships: UNC 5 NCSU 2
• NCAA Basketball Championships since 1983: UNC 3 NCSU 0
• ACC Tournament Championships: UNC 17 NCSU 10
• ACC Tournaments since 1983: UNC 7 NCSU 1
• ACC Reg. Season Champ: UNC 27 NCSU 7
• ACC Reg. Season Champ since 1983: UNC 11 NCSU 2

Why Beating NC State Never Gets Old:

1. UNC is 12-1 over past 13 games souring a lot of Big Red Blazers...
   
2. Reading the ensuing referee/ACC/NCAA conspiracy theories is always entertaining.
   
3. There is a fine line between love and hate in Raleigh: Wins against the Heels: Valvano 6 Sendek 5.
4. At the end of the day they are always happier when UNC loses than when NCSU wins. (Are they even relevant to themselves then...?)
5. The ACC Tournament play-in game is named after them: The Les Robinson Invitational
   
6. They all claim they were accepted at UNC yet chose to go to NCSU. (UNC acceptance rate 34% / NCSU acceptance rate 59%) If they worked a little harder...
   
7. They are so preposterously optimistic before every season and/or game. Reminiscent of Lloyd Christmas: "Mary Swanson: More like one in a million. / Lloyd Christmas: So you're saying there's a chance!"
8. They fight/bicker about the "agricultural" or "technical" school labels, yet they show up to games in overalls, boots, corn straw hats, etc.
9. They are all "engineers"...
10. They don't know how to win gracefully. The term "act like you've been there before" does not apply. It's been too long. They've forgotten.
11. They attend MD/Duke games in place of watching UNC/NCSU games. This is the result of a desperate progression to try and root for a winner...(cough - PT - cough)
    
12. It's the only time you'll see their players. The NBA is a rare option after NCSU...
13. "Wait 'til next year/football/etc..."
    

The Value of Experience

Lawrence Jordan: Many people confuse the terms "youth" and "inexperience." Youth simply refers to age. Freshman are generally 18-19 years old, so they are considered "young" in relation to their collegiate peers. A senior, at say 22-23 years old, is considered "old" by the same population sample. Easy enough.

But who is more experienced? Experience is more complicated. Experience refers to someone being familiar with the expectations of the position they currently hold. Experience is not only minutes played, but the role demanded during those minutes. Being the 4th or 5th scoring option is much different than being the 1st or 2nd.

Inexperience is why North Carolina is suffering through one of its worst seasons since the Doherty years and the dreaded 8-20 season. They have many young players, true, but their older players are in positions they've never held before. Former role players and now expected to produce at a higher level, and lead the team during tenuous moments. They are simply inexperienced with their current responsibilities.

"Found some humor yesterday listening to a Tar Heel fan talk about how ‘young’ their team is. I wonder if he realized they are starting a (1) fifth year senior, (1) senior, (1) junior, and (2) sophomores. In this era, that is a pretty experienced group." - Philip Thompson

This is a prime example of failing to understand inexperience versus youth (or in this case class eligibility). Noted Statistician Ken Pomeroy ranks the experience of each Div. 1 team. His "experience" calculation uses eligibility class weighted by minutes played. A freshman has no years experience, a sophomore has one year experience, etc. He ranks the Tar Heels at 290 out of 347 teams or the bottom 16%.

As many people know, the Heels lost four starters to the NBA along with an experienced senior guard. Roy Williams lined up a top recruiting class to supposedly fill the void, so many expected the team to pick up where it left off. Hence, the Tar Heels were preseason ranked #4.

The oversight, of course, was the inexperience of the '09-'10 team. While several upperclassmen returned, they were nothing more than role players on a talented roster who were now thrust into a starring role. And...two of those players were now asked to start after sitting out the majority of the '08-'09 season.

To put things into perspective, let's compare the '09-'10 Tar Heels to the '01-'02 squad.

'09-'10 Tar Heels

• Players Lost: Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson, Green, Frasor
• Starts Lost: 76% (148/190): 4 of 5 usual starters
• Minutes Lost: 69% (5 of top 7 minute earners)
• Point Lost: 69% (Top 4 scorers)
• Freshman (5): Henson, Strickland, McDonald, D Wear, T Wear
• PPG: -12% (78.9/89.8)
• APG: -7% (16.7/18)
• TOPG: +29% (16/12.4)

'01-'02 Tar Heels

• Players Lost: Haywood, Forte, Peppers, Curry, Owens
• Starts Lost: 58% (95/155): 3 of 5 usual starters
• Minutes Lost: 61% (121.4/200) 5 of top 7 minute earners
• Points Lost: 60% (5 of top 7 scorers)
• Freshman (3): Williams, Manuel, Scott
• PPG: -9% (72.2/79.1)
• APG: -3% (17/17.5)
• TOPG: +5% (16.3/15.5)

Observations:

1. Each of these teams lost five players that played heavy minutes the prior year. Each of these teams forced a sophmore PG into a starting role (Boone/Drew II).
2. Each of these teams had role playing returning starters forced into a "starring" role (Capel & Lang / Ginyard & Thompson).
3. Each of these teams saw significant drops in points and assists while seeing an increase in turnovers.
4. The '09-'10 Tar Heels only return on true starter from the previous year, as Ginyard and Graves did not play the majority of the year.

Youth is not the problem on the '09-'10 team; inexperience is the problem. Combine that with injuries and poor coaching decisions (player rotations, offensive/defensive schemes, stubbornness) and the result is not as surprising as it might seem.

ACC Standings Related to Experience

Lawrence Jordan: Here are the current conference standing versus the experience ranking provided by Ken Pomeroy. For the most part, the teams with more experience have seen more success in conference play. The obvious anomalies being teams with highly talented underclassmen: FSU (Alabi, Singleton, Snaer) & GT (Shumpert & Favors). BC being the counter, an experienced team without much talent.

Conference Standings (Experience Ranking - 1 being highest):

1. Duke (86)
2. MD (76)
3. WFU (123)
4. VT (217)
5. UVA (190)
6. FSU (299)
7. Clemson (226)
8. GT (301)
9. Miami (214)
10. BC (140)
11. UNC (290)
12. NCSU (275)

Sad Night for The ONH Bloggers:

Philip Thompson:

• There is no doubt that this NC State team has hit a wall. Sadly I watched very little of the game, but there is no excuse to lose by 20 at home to Virginia Tech
• To win in the ACC you need quality guard play. Look no further than Maryland being tied for the lead in the conference. Hayes and Vasquez are four year starters who are seasoned in conference play. The Wolfpack are severely lacking in this area.
• I think the best case scenario for the Pack, would be to steal two more conference wins somewhere along the way. I feel the ceiling for them is 4-12 conference record.
• Is it sad that State losses do not bother nearly as much as they use to? I am so accustomed to crushing defeats, that I now feel immune to games like last night.
• Who would have ever thought that the game on Saturday between UNC and NC State would be for the right to play in next years ACC/Big 10 Challenge?
• The Tarheels have no player who can create there own shot at crunch time. With the score tied, everyone knew Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, or Jon Scheyer would have the ball in their hands creating opportunities. Not So much for the Tarheels. Last season, Ty Lawson took over in these situations.
• Great move by Coach K last night when Duke was down 4 points, when he played Singer at power forward. That forced Deon Thompson to have to guard Singler out on the wing. A couple of easy baskets and the Devils were back in the lead.
• I wonder if Roy will complain this season that the ACC Tournament is a giant ‘cocktail party.’ The way I see it, that is their only way to make it to the Big Dance
• Found some humor yesterday listening to a Tarheel fan talk about how ‘young’ their team is. I wonder if he realized they are starting a (1) fifth year senior, (1) senior, (1) junior, and (2) sophomores. In this era, that is a pretty experienced group.
• For the first time in my life on Saturday, I might miss a portion of State/UNC, as I will be joining my wife to attend the battle of 1st place in the ACC between Duke and Maryland. As a State fan, I feel I have earned the right to watch a decent game.

UNC vs NCSU: Game Observations

Philip Thompson:

1. I am very disappointed we lost the game last evening. However, it was very apparent that the better team won
2. If the Wolfpack is going to be a team as talented as the Tar Heels, then they must shoot better than last evening. There were way too many missed open jumpers, and mainly from Scott Wood and Dennis Horner
3. The talent drain in UNC could not be further from the truth. The heels had 6 McDonalds All Americans dress last night. The talent gap between the two teams is still very wide
4. State really needs a point guard to initiate their offense. To many time they were left scrambling for a shot late in the clock. Javi did a great job scoring the ball, but could never seem to get the offense in flow
5. All season the key for the Pack is to keep Tracy Smith out of foul trouble. Last night when he left the game after picking up his third foul, the Pack was up 10. When he reentered a few minutes later, they were trailing by 6
6. What has happened Marcus Ginyard? He might have been the worst player on the court last night. He seems to turn the ball over way too much for a senior
7. If State does not shoot the ball much better in Chapel Hill next month, then we will be in for a replay of last nights game.