UNC vs NCSU: Game Observations

Philip Thompson:

1. I am very disappointed we lost the game last evening. However, it was very apparent that the better team won
2. If the Wolfpack is going to be a team as talented as the Tar Heels, then they must shoot better than last evening. There were way too many missed open jumpers, and mainly from Scott Wood and Dennis Horner
3. The talent drain in UNC could not be further from the truth. The heels had 6 McDonalds All Americans dress last night. The talent gap between the two teams is still very wide
4. State really needs a point guard to initiate their offense. To many time they were left scrambling for a shot late in the clock. Javi did a great job scoring the ball, but could never seem to get the offense in flow
5. All season the key for the Pack is to keep Tracy Smith out of foul trouble. Last night when he left the game after picking up his third foul, the Pack was up 10. When he reentered a few minutes later, they were trailing by 6
6. What has happened Marcus Ginyard? He might have been the worst player on the court last night. He seems to turn the ball over way too much for a senior
7. If State does not shoot the ball much better in Chapel Hill next month, then we will be in for a replay of last nights game.

Game Day: UNC vs NCSU: Raleigh, NC

Lawrence Jordan: The Tar Heels make the short trip to Raleigh this evening for its yearly visit to NC State, but there is a different feeling in the air this year. This isn't the preseason top ranked Tar Heel squad the "experts" predicted. This isn't the talentless, rebuidling NCSU squad many foresaw. This is a Pack team that soundly defeated Duke, their last home opponent, and has a chance to defeat both Duke and UNC for the first time since 2003.

Not to be overlooked, this is also a Pack team that just suffered a 24 point road loss at Maryland. This inconsistency has been a recurring problem for Sidney Lowe during the '09-'10 season. The Pack will turn in a losing performance against Northwestern and barely beat Elon, but will win at FSU, beat Duke in Raleigh, and hang tight with Clemson. Rivalry games mean everything in the state of North Carolina, especially home rivalry games, so I predict the Pack's performance against Duke is similar to the team that will surface this evening.

Inconsistency is not the proper term to describe the Heels. The Tar Heels have been consistent of late, consistently bad. The Tar Heels, losers of 4 of their last 5 games, are limping into Raleigh this year. Their roster, stacked with accomplished high school stars and seasoned role players from Championship Teams, has not performed up to expectations this year.

What's the problem? Injuries? Yes, Davis, Zeller, Ginyard, Strickland, and McDonald have all missed games this year. Inexperience? Yes, the Tar Heels 5 freshman log major minutes. Leadership? Yes, Ginyard, at times, has been more of a liability than the senior leader many predicted. Thompson has lacked scoring and rebounding tenacity many thought they would see. Talent? Yes, the Tar Heel backcourt has been consistently out-performed this year, defensively and offensively. Coaching? Dare I say, YES! Williams seems to be forcing square pegs into round holes this year. The pace of play may be too quick with the lack of backcourt talent. The stock of "talented" players may be confined to unnatural positions and undefined roles. The "teaching" techniques perviously used on experienced teams may not resonate with this roster.

The Tar Heels and Williams had six days to prepare for the Wolfpack. If Williams is finally ready to game plan around this year's players abilities, it should be tonight. If Williams spent his time pouting because the UNC fan-base is daring to question his coaching (or his pinky's) coaching decisions it could be another long night for the Tar Heel faithful.

Keys to the Game:

• Punchy Paint Play: Davis is questionable for the Heels tonight. The Tar Heels track record shows they back down when hit in the mouth. Who will establish the toughest paint presence?
• Perimeter Shooting: Open perimeter shots will be available this evening. The Tar Heels traditionally give up open perimeter shots and this year seems to be an extreme. Tar Heel opponents pack in the defense and dare the UNC guards to shoot. Who will hit the open threes?
• Hustle Plays: As cliche as it sounds, who is going to pick up the loose balls? Who is going to tip out a rebound and reset the offense? Who is going to strip the ball away in the interior?

Game Prediction:
Williams will have the team motivated and ready to play and will have some snide remarks for his doubters at the press conference. It will be an all around entertaining evening:
UNC 80
NCSU 78

Interesting look at UNC's struggles this year: LINK

Oh What a Night: Pack Wins 88-74

Philip Thompson: Honest to God, it would be hard to diagram a better evening if you are a Wolfpack fan. First off, anytime we are able to beat Duke, it should be celebrated. Games like last night give the Pack faithful hope for the future. As I stated yesterday, the key to a Wolfpack victory was having Tracy Smith dominate the paint (which he did by owning the Plumlee dorks all night.) What a great sight it was to see Coach K scowling and yelling at his big men to play better defense, but at the same time knowing they were too uncoordinated and slow to stop Smith and the rest of the Pack. Victories like this have been few and far between in recent years, so Wolfpack Nation has every reason to be happy.

I would like to dedicate last night’s victory to my lovely wife, who just happens to be a die hard Duke fan. Dear, the sight of watching you storm up the stairs with more than eight minutes left was the perfect ending to the evening.

Then, when I thought I could not ask for more, the Tar Heels once again got run out of the gym. That is now 3 losses in a row for Ol’ Roy and company. Obviously being down to only 5 McDonald's All American had the heels at a major disadvantage.

To recap, UNC gets blown out at home, and State dominates Duke. It really does not get any better than this.

Disparity of Talent - Heels Lose Again (L: WFU 82 UNC 69)

Lawrence Jordan: As WFU was widening their lead in the second half, the NBA commentators Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson were discussing the difference in talent on the floor during the game. The superior team, obviously, being the Deacs. How often has this happened under Roy Williams at UNC? UNC just lost its third straight game, a first under Williams, so does that answer the question?

Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller, combined averaging 25 points and 15 rebounds, sat on the sideline as Al-Farouq Aminu, Chas Macfarland, and Tony Woods pushed, banged, out-muscled, and out-rebounded Deon Thompson and the freshman Heels in the paint. But this wasn't the biggest discrepancy...

No. Once again, the Heels backcourt was over-matched. WFU's Ish Smith, CJ Harris, and Ari Stewart dominated the perimeter with their shooting and penetration. The Heels guards were unable to slow down the trio who combined for 51 points. What made the difference? Experience? No, Smith is a Senior but Harris and Stewart are freshman.

That leaves the explanation to a disparity in talent. Yet again the Heels' backcourt is their Achilles Heel, defensively and offensively. Zeller and Davis would have helped on the interior, but their return would not have guaranteed a victory. Until the Heels protect the ball and knock down open shots the losses will continue to mount and set unseen records in futility under Roy Williams.

Big Night for the Big 4

Wake Forest @ UNC:
Philip Thompson: This is a huge game for the Tarheels and their 7 McDonalds Americans tonight. Coming off two consecutive losses, Wake Forest may not be the ideal opponent to travel to Chapel Hill. The Deacs have the size and strength to match the Tar Heels down low, and Ish Smith is the veteran type of point guard who should give Larry Drew trouble (although currently all point guards give him trouble). The Tar Heels are young, but this is a game they really need to win. Also, has there ever been a team ranked with 6 losses in mid January? Final Score:
Wake Forest 82 UNC 75

Lawrence Jordan: The Demon Deacons roll in from Winston Salem after a rather demoralizing loss to Duke last Sunday. The Heels are rolling off one of their worst ACC weeks ever after losing at Clemson and at home to Georgia Tech. This is a pivotal early game in the ACC season. If the Heels spot the Deacs an early first half lead, watch for the wheels to come flying off. Ole' Roy will have to answer more questions than ever... Final Score: UNC 89 Wake Forest 79

Duke @ NC State:
Philip Thompson: The Pack will need a few breaks tonight if they are to pull off an upset. First off, the have to make their open jump shots. With the recent emergence of Scott Wood, that could give Tracy Smith more room to operate down low. Another key is for Smith to stay out of foul trouble (that itself can be very challenging against Duke in a game with ACC officials). Finally, the Pack may have caught a break with Kyle Singler hurting his wrist late in Duke’s win Sundays against Wake Forest. Duke only has three legitimate options on offence and if Singler struggles than so will the Devils. Final Score: Duke 73 NC State 75 (It is about time we win a close one)

Lawrence Jordan: I'm not surprised NCSU fans, including Philip Thompson, don't know what it feels like or what it takes to be ranked. Their days of being ranked along with their last winning conference record were hired away to Arizona State, who currently sit atop the Pac10 conference standings. Duke walks through Raleigh tonight and hands the Pack their 4th conference loss. Wolfpack clap? Final Score: Duke 88 NC State 65

Ranked Opponent? Rinse. Wash. Repeat. (L: Georgia Tech 73-71)

Lawrence Jordan: Ever read the instructions on the back of a shampoo bottle? The Tar Heels might as well be following the instructions, because the same formula had the same result Saturday in Chapel Hill.

Once again, the North Carolina Tar Heels faced a ranked opponent, spotted them a big first half lead and was forced to play from behind. Once again, the Tar Heels fell short 73-71.

The only difference? It was the Heels first home loss this year, and the first loss in Chapel Hill to Georgia Tech since 1996. Yes, that streak included the transition years and 8-20.

Shrug...another poor, underwhelming performance in what is turning out to be a disappointing, prideless year.

Game Notes:

• Talent Mismatch: Iman Shumpert proved just how easily a talented guard can shred the mediocre Tar Heel front court when he tallied 30 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds. In contrast Larry Drew has 2 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds, and 5 turnovers. Senior leader Marcus Ginyard tallied 2 points, 1 assist and 2 turnovers.
• Turovers: Yet again, the Tar Heels were throwing the ball all over the court and totaled more turnovers than the competition. LDII highlights included throwing the ball behind an open, cutting John Henson, and bouncing an ill advised pass of Williams Graves chest giving Iman Shumpert an open dunk extending a dwindling 3 point lead to a 5 point lead. How important were those two points? Scoreboard.
• Toughness: The Tar Heels lack it. Prime example, Lawal taking the ball away from Ed Davis at half court following a UNC timeout with about a minute left. How does this happen?
• Player Rotations?: Where was Dexter Strickland? Why did he only play 10 minutes? Why was LDII's desperate, contested drive/floating lay-up the best option at the end of the game? (No, I don't count the Will Graves heave from half court the last shot...game decided the possession before.)
• Positives: Williams Graves finally stepped up and decided to attempt to carry a leaderless Tar Heels. Without his clutch shooting the Tar Heels aren't even close. Leslie McDonald came off the bench and played some productive minutes.

Thoughts of the Week . . .

Philip Thompson: (Lawrence Jordan)

• NC State Hoops- As good as it feels to have upset Florida St on Tuesday, it is still hard to get over the painful loss to Virginia last Saturday. This season is showing that the Pack has the ability to hang in the game with anyone in the conference, and then lay an egg in less than 24 hours. By the way, Sidney’s whistling has somehow gotten louder this season. (Losing to woeful UVA and beating a good FSU team...sounds like the ACC this year. It will be nothing if not entertaining.)
• Lane Kiffin – Did I miss something? What is the big deal about a coach who was 7-6 last season leaving a school? Was he such a good coach that students needed to riot and burn their mattresses in the middle of campus? Imagine if he had actually beat Alabama or Florida. Lets be honest, would you rather coach at the fifth best job (at best) in the SEC and live in the Tennessee mountains, or control the west coast and live in sunny Southern California. I thought so. (UT football is a religion in eastern to middle Tennesse so I am not surprised the zealots are uprising. Kiffin's career has thrived because he's not afraid to put on a show. Perfect for Southern California.)
• Mark McGwire – First off he needs to send Lane Kiffin a bottle of Champaign for taking the spotlight off him. This was a classic case of a story that really was not one. Is there any one in America that thought that he was clean? Just look at him. What is next, OJ admitting he murdered Nicole? (Worst kept secret ever? McGwire is old news. Sosa is old news...err Sosa's HR's are old news. His current skin is still an oddity.)
• Gilbert Areanas – Has there ever been an athlete quite like him who just doesn’t get it? He apologizes one day and the next he is making the hand pistols in the pregame introduction. I wonder what it feels like to know that you contract with over $90 million left on it is about to be voided. (Stupid is as stupid does...)
• Roy Williams vs the State of South Carolina - I bet Roy is a fan of South Carolina flying the Confederate Flag over its state capitol. The NCAA has stated the as long as the state continues to do so, no NCAA Tournament game will be played in South Carolina. And after what has happened in the last two weeks against College of Charleston and Clemson, Roy must be elated about that. (Where's Darrin Horn's call? Surely this is the year for the Palmetto State to challenge the Heels. Roy's got some rethinking to do with the '09-'10 team. Harrison Barnes isn't coming to town for awhile.)

Did Roy's Peers Read His Book?

Roy Williams release his book, 'Hard Work," in 2009 and it appears his coaching peers were paying attention. These statements, taken directly from his book, seem to hint or explain current problems facing the '09-'10 team.

• "...If I'm better than you are, the more possessions we play, the more likely it is that I'm going to beat you..." (When the Heels are being out-performed Williams has been unable to make the necessary in game adjustments. Is it possible Williams is overestimating the talent on the team this year?)
• "We always try to do what we want to do, not what the other team wants us to do...My thinking is, 'This is the way we're going to play, so what will you do to stop it.'" (If the opposing team beats the Heels at their own transition game, they've proven they are unable to stop it...or adjust.)
• "Coach Smith always said, 'Let's be the actors and let them react'..." (What about equally talented teams?)
• "I've always hoarded time outs. I've said that when I die, I'm going to have more timeouts left than any other ooach...In the second half, I start checking the score once the clock gets down to the eight-minute mark because by that time we have tow opponents: the clock and the other team..." (To Roy's credit he did call a timeout in the first half against Clemson, but the game was long over when the 8 minute mark flashed on the second half scoreboard)
• "After the game (vs. Kansas '08) I was criticized for not calling more timouts when we fell way behind in the first half, but there were six timeouts in that half, and after each one, when we would leave the huddle, our guys did the exact opposite of what I'd just asked them to do...In fact, after one timeout when went out and made the same mistake I'd just been yelling about, I remember turning to on e of my assistants and saying, 'Boy, what good does it do us to have a timeout if they're not going to listen to us.'" (I want Roy to call timeouts. But if Roy is unable to communicate the proper adjustments or set up an effective play during a timeout, maybe Tar Heels fans should be content to let Roy continue to add to his own self-important total?)

Roy's philosophies seem to assume he has the better talent on his team. His reputation as the NCAA's top recruiter has earned him that right. But what about teams like the '09-'10 Tar Heels? There seems to be plenty of talent, be it mostly young talent, with a mixture of veteran players. How can he mold his philosophies to better fit his current players?

Getting Run Out of the Gym

North Carolina inability to counter opponents offensive runs has been a consistent problem all year. Syracuse, Kentucky, Texas, and Clemson amounted such big runs that the Tar Heels were forced to play "catch up" the remainder of the game.

In fact, North Carolina has even given up large runs to inferior opponents where their talent carried them through to victory...that is until they traveled to College of Charleston.

Runs by ranked teams in '09-'10:

• Syracuse 22-1 (L: 87-71)
• Kentucky 28-2 (L: 68-66)
• Texas 23-7 (L: 103-90)
• Clemson 35-12 (L: 83-64)

Runs by unranked team in '09-'10:

• College of Charleston 11-1 (L: 82-79)
• Nevada 20-10 (W: 80-73)
  
• Albany 22-1 (W: 87-70)
• Rutgers 13-4 (W: 81-67)

UNC vs Clemson: L (Clemson 83-64)

Lawrence Jordan: Clemson punished the tentative Tar Heels last night at Little John Colesium, 83-64. No Tar Heel in the starting five scored in double digits and three starters turned the ball over 5 times apiece. Dexter Strickland led the team with 17 points, the only player to reach double figures. Boxscore.

The starters were so bad at the beginning of the second half, a relative term considering the play in the first half, that Roy Williams pulled all five starters and inserted all five freshman. While Williams had his back to the game, the freshman consistently broke the Clemson press and were actually able to reduce Clemson's lead.

So what does Roy do? Without any regard for the increased level of play currently on the floor Williams substitutes all five under-performing starters back in the game. Result: several immediate turnovers by the returning starters.

The end result was predictable after the first 9 minutes. Clemson ran away from this game in an embarrassing performance by the coach and team. Williams is determined to run his system, understandably after resulting in 2 National Championships in 5 years, but he needs to figure out a way to make the square pegs on this team fit the predetermined round holes in his game plan.

The frustration is mounting due to the fact that the same issues plague the '09-'10 Tar Heels currently that were evident at the beginning of the season. Turnovers, lack of composure, erratic shooting, and no real leadership on defense or offense were as visible in game 1 as they were in game 17. If team meetings, exhaustive practices, and traditional coaching motivators are not improving the team's overall play - might it be time to switch up the line-up?

Wish List for the New Year

Philip Thompson:

• NC State Basketball to Return to Relevance - So far, this season’s edition of Wolfpack basketball seems to play with much more passion and drive, however, there is still a severe lack of talent on the team. With next year’s recruiting class looking strong on paper, hopefully the Pack will be in store for big things in the future.
• Phil Mickelson to Continue on His Strong Finish - Nobody on the PGA had a stronger final two months of the season than Mickelson. He seemed confident in his putting stroke, and with no idea of what will become of Tiger Woods (STD’s anyone?), this is Phil’s golden opportunity to win many tournaments and possibly claim the world #1 ranking.
• St. Louis Cardinals Make Deep Playoff Run – With yesterdays signing of Matt Holiday, the Cards have again position themselves to be a true contender for the World Series. They certainly have the front loaded starting pitching to be a tough out.
• Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers to Win the Super Bowl - The Chargers certainly enter the playoffs on a roll. They have to be happy that the Steelers did not qualify for the playoffs and they have struggles against Pittsburg in the past. Also, one key to remember is that San Diego has taken 4 of the last 5 games against the #1 seeded Colt.
• Wolfpack Football to Avoid Injuries and Develop a Defense - The Wolfpack’s season was really over before it started. If they want to be any factor in next years ACC race, they must get better on the defensive side of the ball.
• John Fox to Return as Panthers Coach - What the Panthers accomplished at the end of the season says a lot to me about Coach Fox. His team really had nothing to play for at the end of the season, yet he kept them motivated and they will enter next season with some much needed momentum.
• Dallas to lose Saturday night - I love the fact they have not won a playoff game in over 12 seasons. As great as they have looked over the past three weeks would only make their fall better if they Eagles won on Saturday evening.
• Have the Chicago Cubs not Win the World Series - Hey, at least I know one of my wishes will come true!

The Tumbling Tar Heels: UNC vs C of C: L (C of C 82-79)

Lawrence Jordan: I feel like a bad fan. I completely forgot about the College of Charleston (C of C) game last night. There is no excuse. Until my phone started buzzing with text messages I was unaware of the outcome of the game. But, you know what? I am glad I didn't watch. I've seen enough games this year that perusing the box score told me the story.

Poor defensive intensity resulting in wild opponent scoring run? (12-1 run to end regulation) Check. Lack of perimeter defense? (13 made 3pts for C of C) Check. Poor shot selection? (27-71: 38%) Check. Terrible 3 point shooting? (1-6: 17%) Check. Missed layups? (See: 27-71: 38%) Check. More turnovers than the opponent? (UNC 13: C of C 10) Check. Roy hoarding time outs? (Only two 30 second timeouts called in regulation) Check.

The numbers don't lie. Despite out-rebounding C of C by 20 (52-32) and taking 28 more attempts from the FT line (34-6) the Tar Heels lost the game. What? How? Well the 38% FG percentage doesn't help, but the Heels also only totaled 13 assists on 27 FGs.

Until this team becomes a cohesive unit utilizing spacing, protecting the ball, making the extra pass, and knocking down the open shot, every game will be a struggle. Every team has a chance to go on a scoring run against the Heels. C of C took advantage and got the win. Congratulations to Bobby Cremins and the College of Charleston. You've joined the growing list of teams to out-coach and out-play the University of North Carolina Tar Heels during the 2009-2010 season.

The Tar Heels seem to get motivated enough for top competition, enough to hang relatively close, but have been making the same mistakes for the entire season. The worst part? There is no the improvement.

The 2006 season will be remembered for one of Coach Williams' best coaching jobs after losing so much talent to the NBA after the 2005 National Championship. The 2009 season could be remembered as one of Coach Williams' worst coaching performances after "reloading" but under-utilizing the freshman and existing talent.

Young teams need coaching during games not just in practice. Call a dadgum timeout during tense moments in the games. Coach. Emphasize the goals. Encourage. Refusing to adapt to the needs of the team is a sign of arrogance and stubborness, not hard work.

Tar Heel Holiday Season in Review

Lawrence Jordan: I owe the readers at The ONH an apology. There have been some events that occurred over the Holidays that should have been covered but I was unable to devote the time. Let's take a quick look back at what transpired:

• 12/22/09: Basketball vs. Marshall: After hanging close in the first half, the taller Tar Heels blow open the game in the second half. Win big 98-61 despite shooting less than 50% from the floor.
• 12/26/09: Football vs. Pitt: The Heels lose 19-17 on a last minute FG. A microcosm of the entire football season: untimely turnovers or inept offense leads to either short field opportunities for Pitt or blown scoring chances for Heels. Yates goal-line interception and inability to avoid rush stalls offense. Overly conservative play calling at its finest and lack of talent at quarterback leave the Heels at 8-5, when 10-3 or even 11-2 was attainable. Can the Heels win in Charlotte (or against the Pack for that matter)? Butch Davis has some questions to answer.
• 12/28/09: Basketball vs. Rutgers: After hanging close in the first half, the Tar Heels hold on for the win despite a valiant second half run by Rutgers. Another sub 50% FG performance. Heels win 81-67.
• 12/30/09: Basketball vs Albany: The Tar Heels go up big in the first half and extend the lead to 38 points in the second half. Albany mounts a run and plays the Heels even in the second half. The Heels shoot 17-27 (63%) from the FT line and barely out-rebound the undermanned Albany team, but finally shoot 50% from the floor. Heels win 87-70.

It's been an underwhelming Holiday Season for the UNC athletic department. There are many more questions now than when the seasons began for the UNC revenue sports. Tar Heel fans shouldn't let the names and reputations of their coaches exempt them from answering tough questions about poor performances.