Who Gives a Crap Bowl Vol. I

Philip Thompson: Honest question, is either fan base excited for the showdown in Chapel Hill pitting UNC vs NC State. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to win this game, but motivation is hard to come by. On one hand you have the worst Tarheel team in nearly 10 years. On the other hand, you have a Wolfpack program that seems to be stuck in mediocrity or lower for the past 25 years. The Tarheels have won one of their last seven games, but that win did come against the Wolfpack.

In my opinion, the Pack’s only real shot is if UNC is still feeling the effects of an ‘all or nothing’ crushing home loss to Duke less than 72 hours earlier. Also, having Ed Davis out of the game should help a State team that is really in a free-fall currently.

Prediction:
UNC 69
NC State 58

Why Beating NC State Never Gets Old

Lawrence Jordan: Some Tar Heels love to claim the Wolfpack are not rivals just to irritate the irrational bunch down I-40. I am not one of those Tar Heels. NC State is a rival. Beating the Wolfpack certainly means something to me, even if it's just avoiding their mooing after one of their few and far between victories.

It means bragging rights wherever I roam within North Carolina (people outside of North Carolina know little about the Pack). It means knowing the success and basketball tradition that is synonymous with being a Tar Heel is still out of reach in Raleigh.

You see, NC State wants desperately to be relevant, and this need for relevancy drives their irrationality. Sure the Wolfpack can talk about Everett Case and their Southern Conference history. They can talk about David Thompson and 1974. They can talk about a broken-play air-ball that turned into a National Championship in 1983. But what do they have to talk about in the 27 years since 1983?

By the Numbers:

• The overall series record: UNC 141-75
• Series Record in Deam Dome: 18-5
• NCAA Basketball Championships: UNC 5 NCSU 2
• NCAA Basketball Championships since 1983: UNC 3 NCSU 0
• ACC Tournament Championships: UNC 17 NCSU 10
• ACC Tournaments since 1983: UNC 7 NCSU 1
• ACC Reg. Season Champ: UNC 27 NCSU 7
• ACC Reg. Season Champ since 1983: UNC 11 NCSU 2

Why Beating NC State Never Gets Old:

1. UNC is 12-1 over past 13 games souring a lot of Big Red Blazers...
   
2. Reading the ensuing referee/ACC/NCAA conspiracy theories is always entertaining.
   
3. There is a fine line between love and hate in Raleigh: Wins against the Heels: Valvano 6 Sendek 5.
4. At the end of the day they are always happier when UNC loses than when NCSU wins. (Are they even relevant to themselves then...?)
5. The ACC Tournament play-in game is named after them: The Les Robinson Invitational
   
6. They all claim they were accepted at UNC yet chose to go to NCSU. (UNC acceptance rate 34% / NCSU acceptance rate 59%) If they worked a little harder...
   
7. They are so preposterously optimistic before every season and/or game. Reminiscent of Lloyd Christmas: "Mary Swanson: More like one in a million. / Lloyd Christmas: So you're saying there's a chance!"
8. They fight/bicker about the "agricultural" or "technical" school labels, yet they show up to games in overalls, boots, corn straw hats, etc.
9. They are all "engineers"...
10. They don't know how to win gracefully. The term "act like you've been there before" does not apply. It's been too long. They've forgotten.
11. They attend MD/Duke games in place of watching UNC/NCSU games. This is the result of a desperate progression to try and root for a winner...(cough - PT - cough)
    
12. It's the only time you'll see their players. The NBA is a rare option after NCSU...
13. "Wait 'til next year/football/etc..."
    

The Value of Experience

Lawrence Jordan: Many people confuse the terms "youth" and "inexperience." Youth simply refers to age. Freshman are generally 18-19 years old, so they are considered "young" in relation to their collegiate peers. A senior, at say 22-23 years old, is considered "old" by the same population sample. Easy enough.

But who is more experienced? Experience is more complicated. Experience refers to someone being familiar with the expectations of the position they currently hold. Experience is not only minutes played, but the role demanded during those minutes. Being the 4th or 5th scoring option is much different than being the 1st or 2nd.

Inexperience is why North Carolina is suffering through one of its worst seasons since the Doherty years and the dreaded 8-20 season. They have many young players, true, but their older players are in positions they've never held before. Former role players and now expected to produce at a higher level, and lead the team during tenuous moments. They are simply inexperienced with their current responsibilities.

"Found some humor yesterday listening to a Tar Heel fan talk about how ‘young’ their team is. I wonder if he realized they are starting a (1) fifth year senior, (1) senior, (1) junior, and (2) sophomores. In this era, that is a pretty experienced group." - Philip Thompson

This is a prime example of failing to understand inexperience versus youth (or in this case class eligibility). Noted Statistician Ken Pomeroy ranks the experience of each Div. 1 team. His "experience" calculation uses eligibility class weighted by minutes played. A freshman has no years experience, a sophomore has one year experience, etc. He ranks the Tar Heels at 290 out of 347 teams or the bottom 16%.

As many people know, the Heels lost four starters to the NBA along with an experienced senior guard. Roy Williams lined up a top recruiting class to supposedly fill the void, so many expected the team to pick up where it left off. Hence, the Tar Heels were preseason ranked #4.

The oversight, of course, was the inexperience of the '09-'10 team. While several upperclassmen returned, they were nothing more than role players on a talented roster who were now thrust into a starring role. And...two of those players were now asked to start after sitting out the majority of the '08-'09 season.

To put things into perspective, let's compare the '09-'10 Tar Heels to the '01-'02 squad.

'09-'10 Tar Heels

• Players Lost: Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson, Green, Frasor
• Starts Lost: 76% (148/190): 4 of 5 usual starters
• Minutes Lost: 69% (5 of top 7 minute earners)
• Point Lost: 69% (Top 4 scorers)
• Freshman (5): Henson, Strickland, McDonald, D Wear, T Wear
• PPG: -12% (78.9/89.8)
• APG: -7% (16.7/18)
• TOPG: +29% (16/12.4)

'01-'02 Tar Heels

• Players Lost: Haywood, Forte, Peppers, Curry, Owens
• Starts Lost: 58% (95/155): 3 of 5 usual starters
• Minutes Lost: 61% (121.4/200) 5 of top 7 minute earners
• Points Lost: 60% (5 of top 7 scorers)
• Freshman (3): Williams, Manuel, Scott
• PPG: -9% (72.2/79.1)
• APG: -3% (17/17.5)
• TOPG: +5% (16.3/15.5)

Observations:

1. Each of these teams lost five players that played heavy minutes the prior year. Each of these teams forced a sophmore PG into a starting role (Boone/Drew II).
2. Each of these teams had role playing returning starters forced into a "starring" role (Capel & Lang / Ginyard & Thompson).
3. Each of these teams saw significant drops in points and assists while seeing an increase in turnovers.
4. The '09-'10 Tar Heels only return on true starter from the previous year, as Ginyard and Graves did not play the majority of the year.

Youth is not the problem on the '09-'10 team; inexperience is the problem. Combine that with injuries and poor coaching decisions (player rotations, offensive/defensive schemes, stubbornness) and the result is not as surprising as it might seem.

ACC Standings Related to Experience

Lawrence Jordan: Here are the current conference standing versus the experience ranking provided by Ken Pomeroy. For the most part, the teams with more experience have seen more success in conference play. The obvious anomalies being teams with highly talented underclassmen: FSU (Alabi, Singleton, Snaer) & GT (Shumpert & Favors). BC being the counter, an experienced team without much talent.

Conference Standings (Experience Ranking - 1 being highest):

1. Duke (86)
2. MD (76)
3. WFU (123)
4. VT (217)
5. UVA (190)
6. FSU (299)
7. Clemson (226)
8. GT (301)
9. Miami (214)
10. BC (140)
11. UNC (290)
12. NCSU (275)

Sad Night for The ONH Bloggers:

Philip Thompson:

• There is no doubt that this NC State team has hit a wall. Sadly I watched very little of the game, but there is no excuse to lose by 20 at home to Virginia Tech
• To win in the ACC you need quality guard play. Look no further than Maryland being tied for the lead in the conference. Hayes and Vasquez are four year starters who are seasoned in conference play. The Wolfpack are severely lacking in this area.
• I think the best case scenario for the Pack, would be to steal two more conference wins somewhere along the way. I feel the ceiling for them is 4-12 conference record.
• Is it sad that State losses do not bother nearly as much as they use to? I am so accustomed to crushing defeats, that I now feel immune to games like last night.
• Who would have ever thought that the game on Saturday between UNC and NC State would be for the right to play in next years ACC/Big 10 Challenge?
• The Tarheels have no player who can create there own shot at crunch time. With the score tied, everyone knew Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, or Jon Scheyer would have the ball in their hands creating opportunities. Not So much for the Tarheels. Last season, Ty Lawson took over in these situations.
• Great move by Coach K last night when Duke was down 4 points, when he played Singer at power forward. That forced Deon Thompson to have to guard Singler out on the wing. A couple of easy baskets and the Devils were back in the lead.
• I wonder if Roy will complain this season that the ACC Tournament is a giant ‘cocktail party.’ The way I see it, that is their only way to make it to the Big Dance
• Found some humor yesterday listening to a Tarheel fan talk about how ‘young’ their team is. I wonder if he realized they are starting a (1) fifth year senior, (1) senior, (1) junior, and (2) sophomores. In this era, that is a pretty experienced group.
• For the first time in my life on Saturday, I might miss a portion of State/UNC, as I will be joining my wife to attend the battle of 1st place in the ACC between Duke and Maryland. As a State fan, I feel I have earned the right to watch a decent game.